2008年4月9日 星期三

25年內人類的馬爾薩斯災難預言

25年內人類的馬爾薩斯災難

我之所以選擇這篇來閱讀是因為數學上證明"指數速率終將超越線性速率", 也就是說人類的大災難預言已經是既將成真。
馬爾薩斯的思想很大程度是對他的父親及其朋友們(如盧梭 )的樂觀思想的反動。 他的一些文章也是对孔赛伯爵的回应。他的一些文章也是對孔賽伯爵的回應。 在1798年发表的《人口学原理》中,马尔萨斯作出一个著名的预言:人口增长超越食物供应,会导致人均占有食物的减少。在1798年發表的《人口學原理》中,馬爾薩斯作出一個著名的預言:人口增長超越食物供應,會導致人均佔有食物的減少。
人口學原理的基本思想是:如沒有限制,人口是呈指數速率(即:2,4,8,16,32,64,128等)增長,而食物供應呈線性速率(即:1,2 ,3,4,5,6,7等)增長。 注意:马尔萨斯使用的相对应术语是几何算术注意:馬爾薩斯使用的相對應術語是幾何算術

只有自然原因(事故和衰老),灾难( 战争瘟疫 ,及各类饥荒 ),道德限制和罪恶(马尔萨斯所指包括杀婴,谋杀, 节育同性恋 )能够限制人口的过度增长。只有自然原因(事故和衰老),災難( 戰爭瘟疫 ,及各類飢荒 ),道德限制和罪惡(馬爾薩斯所指包括殺嬰,謀殺, 節育同性戀 )能夠限制人口的過度增長參見馬爾薩斯災難
最明顯證據就是近年人口指數成長的噴出現象所產生之物資需要大幅成長, 而物資供應成長是線性速率 5%, 4.5%, 4.5%, 人口是呈指數速率如右圖,所以周期性災難是必然的結果。右下圖更說明這人口指數噴出如同股票噴出類似般行情,難道人類都是循著自然率而毀滅嗎?



馬爾薩斯自己注意到許多人誤用他的理論,痛苦地闡明他沒有僅僅預測未來的大災難。 他辩解道,“……周期性灾难持续存在的原因自人类有史以来就已经存在,目前仍然存在,并且将来会继续存在,除非我们的大自然的物理结构发生决定性的变化。”因此,马尔萨斯认为他的《人口学原理》是对人类过去和目前状况的解释,以及对我们未来的预测。他辯解道,“……週期性災難持續存在的原因自人類有史以來就已經存在,目前仍然存在,並且將來會繼續存在,除非我們的大自然的物理結構發生決定性的變化。”因此,馬爾薩斯認為他的《人口學原理》是對人類過去和目前狀況的解釋,以及對我們未來的預測。
馬爾薩斯的《1798論文》表達了以下八個主要觀點:
  1. 人口數量嚴重受限於生存手段人口數量嚴重受限於生存手段
  2. 當生存手段增加後,人口也相應增加當生存手段增加後,人口也相應增加
  3. 人口壓力刺激生產增長人口壓力刺激生產增長
  4. 生產增長反過來也刺激人口增長生產增長反過來也刺激人口增長
  5. 從長遠來看,生產增長不能與人口的增長潛力保持同步,人口數量與供養能力之間必將出現巨大裂痕從長遠來看,生產增長不能與人口的增長潛力保持同步,人口數量與供養能力之間必將出現巨大裂痕
  6. 性、勞動和子女等影響人口和生產力的諸多因素由個​​人的收支決定所影響性、勞動和子女等影響人口和生產力的諸多因素由個​​人的收支決定所影響
  7. 當人口增長超過供養能力時,正面的抑制因素會發揮作用當人口增長超過供養能力時,正面的抑制因素會發揮作用
  8. 這些抑制因素的本質將對生物社會系統的其他部分產生影響這些抑制因素的本質將對生物社會系統的其他部分產生影響
分析:

依人口指數噴出如同股票噴出類似般行情,必然有兩種發展:
  • 人口指數噴出後,受教育普及、食物、通膨、氣候溫室效應影響,進入高原期;
  • 人口指數噴出後,受食物、資源衝突影響,進入戰爭期,人口突然大減;


Malthus seems to have had some knowledge of this law , he did not use it as the basis of his conclusions Now the "law of diminishingreturns" is simply the phrase by whicheconomists describe the well-known fact that a man cannot go on indefinitely increasing the amount of capital and labour that he expends upon a piece of land, and continue to get profitable returns Sooner or later a point is reached where the product of the latest increment of expenditure is less than the expenditure itself This point has already been reached in many regions, whence a part of the population is compelled to move to other land When it has been reached everywhere, population will universally exceed subsistence.普遍超過了溫飽。 Stated in this form , Malthusianism seems to be malthusianism irrefutable Nevertheless the law of diminishing returns, like all economic laws is true only in certain conditions Change the conditions , in this case, the methods of production, and the law is no longer operative With new productive processes, further expenditures of labour and capital become profitable, and the point of diminishing returns is moved farther away This fact has received frequent illustration in the history of agriculture and mining While it is true that new methods are not always discovered as soon as they are needed, and that men often find it more profitable to expend their additional resources upon new lands than upon the old, it is also true that we can set no definite limits to the inventive power of man , nor to the man , potential fertility of nature Absolutely speaking, no one is warranted in asserting that these two forces will not be able to modify indefinitely the conditions in which the law of diminishing returns operates, so that subsistence will keep pace with population as long as men have standing room upon the earth On the other hand, we cannot prove that if population were to increase up to the full limit of its physiological possibilities, it would always be sufficiently provided for by the fertility of nature and the inventiveness of man We are dealing here with three unknown quantities Upon such a basis it is impossible either to establish asocial law conclusively to refute any particular generalization that may be set up In the third place, the Malthusian theory, even if true , is of no practical use The assurance that population, if unchecked will inevitably press upon subsistence does not terrify us, when we realize that it always has been checked, by celibacy , late marriages , war ,生存沒有恐嚇我們,當我們認識到,它總是有得到有效遏制,由獨身 , 晚婚 , 戰爭 , natural calamities, and other forces which are not due to scarcity of subsistence.各種自然災害和其他勢力,是不是因為缺乏生活來源。 The practical question for any people is whether these non-scarcity checks are likely to keep population within the limits of that ,很可能要等到人口的界限,即 people's productive resources.人們的生產性資源。 So far as the nations of the 到目前為止,作為國家的 Western world are concerned, this question may be answered in the affirmative.西方世界來說,這一問題可能會回答是肯定的。

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