2009年9月30日 星期三

國際資金策略 - 美債對美元衝擊 分析 ( US debt to US dollar and treasure impact )

美國次貸風暴至雷曼宣佈倒閉保護,造成金融海嘯,然後美國信貸泡沫破裂,美聯儲救市救銀,美債泡沫逐步形成,一個巨大泡沫急速萎縮將形成另一大泡沫,人類為了不讓人類整體經濟成長求生之體系毀滅,不得不因應二次大戰後最大災難: 貨幣危機、通貨膨脹、資金行情,再持續製造下一泡沫;( U.S. debt bubble and gradually formed a huge bubble shrunk to form another large bubble survival of the system in order to prevent the the human overall economic growth, human destruction, had in response to the biggest disaster after World War II: a currency crisis, inflation, capital market,then continued to manufacture the next bubble; )

而大泡沫延伸之資金行情、通貨膨脹/景氣行情、貨幣危機來的如此快,資金行情已經跑到連一般投資人都開始懷疑: 怎麼會漲成這樣?由其是非美區域性之股票,最大災難最大泡沫隱含最大風險與最大利潤,為什麼國際資金持續拉升非美區域性之股票?

  1. 由以下美公債時辰表不難發現美國將持續發債,國際資金當然要分散風險將資金轉成其他貨幣資產;
  2. 資金進駐非美區域性之股票與貨幣,在等待下一波美債突增之戰略,反正,已經逐步將非美區域性之資產拉高;( Funds stationed in non-US regional stocks and currencies, waiting for the next wave of U.S. debt surges from strategy, anyway, has been gradually non-US regional assets pulled; )
  3. 是否等待時機大量資金再進入商品造成通貨膨脹,還未必全面看見它們會這樣做,但是它們逐步讓美元轉弱之方向是確認的;( Whether waiting for an opportunity to a lot of money re-entry of goods causes inflation, may not be fully seen them do so, but they gradually so that the direction of a weaker U.S. dollar is recognized; )
  4. 資金進駐非美區域性之股票與貨幣,但非美區域性之 GDP 成長則下降,一旦,美元升息弱勢GDP之非美區域將產生災難性金融風暴。( when money stationed in non-US regional stock and currency funds, once, non-US regional's GDP growth fell, the dollar rate hike vulnerable non-US regional GDP will have disastrous financial turmoil. )


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