中國製造業警報拉響！失業潮即將來臨？
 |
| World wide fall into deflation due to China over supply and over production ? if it is true, China will be a bubble |
中國8月財新製造業PMI初值47.1，是2009年3月來最低，為連續第六個月低於榮枯線下，顯示中國製造業運行進一步放緩。PPI繼續大幅度下滑，工業企業的利潤被進一步壓榨。
7月鐵路貨運量暴跌10.9%，發電量大跌2.8%。一切都顯示，經濟蕭條越來越嚴重了。《貴陽在線》報導指出，由觀察各行業的近期情勢，可以發現中國製造業的前景確實不容樂觀。
以電子業為例，今年上半年，金仁寶、三星加快撤離步伐，偉創利遠赴美國設廠，富士康大舉進軍印度，曾經風靡全球的中國電子產業走上了下坡路。若觀察數家最具代表性的電子企業7月財報，如鴻海、廣達、仁寶、和碩、華碩、宏碁、英業達、友達、群創、光寶科、緯創、台達電等，可以發現營收較 6 月份全線下跌，是中國電子行業由盛轉衰的強烈信號。依此趨勢看，下半年中國電子業下降10%-20%並非不可能。
空調行業：上半年零售額下降27％，下半年基本沒戲
 |
China M1 growth rate from 2008 is about 120%, it is a crazy growth in human history but it cannot drive economic
after 2015 due to China domestic consumption and need relative to GDP is too small % |
上半年，中國空調市場受天氣、經濟下行、房地產低迷等多重因素的影響，空調銷量甚至可用慘不忍睹來形容。綜合各電商(天貓，蘇寧易購、國美在線、京東)，量販店(國美、蘇寧)，以及各專業店(傳統經銷商)的前三季度銷售數據(9月份未統計，但就空調行業，15財年已結束)，來看，
整體空調行業實際零售額下降27％。
下半年空調進入淡季，特別是
二線及以下城市房地產陷入冰封，2015年上半年空調市場需求下滑幅度將出乎意料的加大。空調如此，其它家電也好不到哪兒去。
快消品行業：食品飲料需求穩定，化妝品大幅下降
數據統計顯示，2015年上半年，貝因美、三元股份、科迪乳業業績同比下降。蒙牛營收微降，伊利增長速度也出現下滑。匯源果汁雖然營收增長，但卻錄得虧損。娃哈哈、可口可樂、雙匯、雀巢、康師傅等企業均出現不同程度的業績下滑。
食品飲料作為人們的基本需求，銷售量穩如磐石自不必說。但在人們收入大減，財富被房地產綁架的今天，日化用品行業就沒那麼好運了。一家入華十六年的世界五百強化妝品公司的員工透露，該公司今年全國銷售第一次連續五個月出現十個點以上的下滑，利潤下滑更在二十個點以上。而給外資化妝品企業提供包裝的深圳通產麗星，繼去年首現虧損後，今年上半年營收和利潤再次狂跌，日化用品的行情之差可見一斑。
紡織服裝行業：
紡織業倒閉潮不斷，服裝業內外交困
近期，紡織行業新聞不斷，先有紡織巨頭莊吉集團也在5月份宣告破產，再有華東紡織大鱷寶利嘉集團老闆欠債跑路，前不久，曾經風光無限的100年紡織老廠濟南國棉一廠也破產了，另一家世界五百強浙江紅劍集團也傳出破產倒閉的消息。
服裝業行業則內外交困，一方面內需斷崖式下跌，大批服裝老闆拖欠工資跑路。另一方面，大量外單流向東南亞等人工成本低廉的國家。優衣庫、無印良品、青山商事、利豐、東京 STYLE、Honeys 都在加快向東南亞轉移訂單。
製鞋業：
外資基本跑光，內資鞋廠成片倒閉
從08年開始，港台鞋業就開始了大逃亡。台灣寶成、綠洲鞋業、華堅集團、賜昌鞋業等巨頭早已在海外站穩腳跟，接下來便是全盤東移。不僅是珠三角，在浙江溫州、福建晉江等製鞋基地都在轉移或關閉。由於人工成本、廠房租金、物流成本居高不下，大量中小鞋企成片倒閉。
建陶衛浴：
產能嚴重過剩，更大的倒閉潮即將到來
由於08年後瘋狂擴張，中國建築陶瓷和衛浴的年產能全世界人民即使全部使用中國貨也需要二到三年才能消化完成。近年隨著房地產轉趨冷淡，倒閉潮洶湧澎湃。由於房地產行業屬於耐用消費品行業，一旦停止建房，恐怕建陶衛浴的需求都會極度萎縮，並且保持長達十到二十年的低潮。
家具行業：巨頭紛紛破產，小廠如秋風落葉
自從2014年起，大型家具企業倒閉層出不窮。去年深圳家居巨頭華源軒、富之島宣告破產，今年5月3日擁有23年曆史的廣州標卓家私破產，有“東莞家具航母”之稱的東莞永信家具製造有限公司也相繼倒閉。據最新數據統計，
兩年來僅深圳龍崗、東莞厚街、佛山龍江三個鎮倒閉的家具廠多達849家。
汽車配件包裝：流水落花春去也！
前幾年，中國汽車銷售保持站每年10%以上的增長，並成為世界頭號汽車消費大車，也令國內汽車配件廠紅火了好幾年。然而，進入2015，當眾多汽車廠家仍在做著錦繡繁華的中國夢時，汽車突然買不動了。7月，長安汽車產銷分別為16.2261萬輛和16.2179萬輛，同比分別下滑22.29%和8.36%。中國7月份汽車銷量報150萬輛，同比下跌7.1%；乘用車銷量127萬輛，同比下跌6.6%。創2013年2月以來的最大降幅。
面臨加速下行的經濟走勢，中國眾多的實體企業已經拋棄了短時間經濟轉暖的幻想，開始大量裁員來應對訂單的縮減並減少企業運營成本。上半年，聯想、惠普、億滋、三星、HTC等世界知名企業已經啟動了裁員計劃。
在接下來的半年時間，鋼鐵、機械、電子、家電、家具、建陶、衛浴、地板、五金等與房地產緊密關聯的行業很可能發生激烈的裁員潮。沙鋼、大眾、通用、格力等五百強企業都可能出現在裁員名單上。此外，汽車、造紙、食品飲料、包裝印刷、日用化工甚至互聯網行業，都會發生不同程度的裁員潮。
中國震盪全球通縮
中國引發的全球股災似乎完結，但真的沒事了嗎？ 剛好相反，暗潮正洶湧。 現在是人類史上，無前例可循、人人不知所措的處境：全世界都陷進通貨緊縮的巨大流沙裡。
 |
| US money supply M1 growth rate from 2008 is about 110%, also cannot overcome deflation effect from China |
如今世人發現，當強國不強，更令人害怕，尤其是其他地區經濟已經低迷的此時。中國不是稻草，而是最後一根巨木，將全世界推進更深更大的通縮流沙裡。
「中國把通縮硬塞給全世界，」有債券天王之稱的葛洛斯說。
他指的不是中國最近的大震盪引發全球通縮，而是
過去二十年，中國過度投資和過剩生產，把全世界現在和未來好幾年的潛在需求，給提前榨乾了。
受中國市場萎縮打擊和被紅色供應鏈取代的台灣，在中國轉型不順，被迫改採進一步、退半步的舞步空檔裡，是否能因此得到喘息空間？要如何抓緊機會，才能在產業結構和內外需各方面找到新出路，逃出通縮流沙，保得未來二十年安康？
物價下跌總是受消費者歡迎，但長期物價下跌，會讓經濟窒息。通縮殺傷力之強，日本就是最好例證。日本景氣呈現L型走勢，足足失落了將近三十年。
如今全球陷入通縮，「日本殭屍化，全球日本化」的可能性會有多高？世界各國必須經驗、工具、智慧、方法和決心都齊全，才有可能度過難關。
問題就在於，唯一對長期通縮有經驗的是日本，而日本至今仍然找不到方法逃出通縮流沙，GDP和民間消費年增率都在往下走，安倍經濟學並沒有發揮長效。
被孫明德形容是「拔劍四顧心茫然」的美國聯準會，升息喊了許久不敢升，怕的就是會捺熄了僅剩的一點經濟成長、助燃了已經火光熊熊的通貨緊縮。如果已經放話九月升息的聯準會，九月十六、十七日的決策會議決定不升息，證明美國的通縮壓力確實不輕。
當強國不強 更令人害怕
亞洲金融危機、○八年美國引發的金融海嘯、○九年歐債危機中，中國扮演全球經濟救世主的角色，出錢、出市場，撐住了很多國家的貨幣和許多跨國企業的營收。如今不是希臘，反而是中國，變成全球最大的危機。龐大中國艦隊駛入了淺水區，「新常態」水位下降，暴露出整個中國的各行各業，其實都在裸泳。
中國的勞力紅利、工資紅利、土地紅利和稅費紅利都沒有了。但是以它十三億人口和發展落差的開發需求，中國市場中長期仍有令全世界驚艷的理由。
但短期之內，青黃不接，讓中國不再能夠扮演全球經濟火車頭的角色。其結果是，拉著這幾年受惠於中國崛起帶動出口的亞洲四小龍，以及原料出口的新興國家一起沉淪，導致全世界最後一塊「樂土」也消失了。
在前一波的股災裡，全世界不難發現股價跌得最凶的，幾乎全都是各國的「中國概念股」，包括蘋果、歐美精品業者，以及德國許多重度依賴中國市場的設備廠商和高級汽車。
《南德意志報》用「中國病」來形容，當中國不強，給世界帶來的衝擊。
「幾年前，人們不需要太擔心世界經濟，無論西方國家經歷什麼樣的風暴，總是還有中國和新興市場可以依靠，」報導中說，「如今西方企業經歷的不是個別國家的走弱，而是新興國家整體走弱，這對奧迪這樣中國銷量佔三分之一的企業而言，是一個詛咒。」
China’s Crude Oil Storage Outlook
Over the past few months, with oil prices at historical lows, China imported more oil than it needed, putting extra capacity into storage and boosting monthly imports to a high of 7.2 million barrels per day in December. According to price reporting agency Platts, around 300,000 barrels per day were likely earmarked for commercial storage and strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). But analysts disagree over how long China’s import streak can continue in the face of rising stockpiles.
While an import boost may have provided a floor for oil prices, the country doesn’t look poised for a massive increase in crude imports unless private companies boost storage capacity faster than anticipated. Analysts say that while importing crude at $50 per barrel is cheaper than a significant portion of domestic production, demand for oil in China is currently tepid.
 |
China import from Russia increase but decrease from other countries,
it is obvious a strategy against US and Europe |
Over a longer period, a new government policy and action by private companies could boost storage capacity and incremental imports. In the short term, analysts warn that storage projects are likely to take a year to come online, meaning any project not in the pipeline now will have minimal impact this year. Most analysts expect imports will slowly begin to align with actual demand as storage capacity is tapped out. But others are more bullish; in a research note, Bernstein wrote that it expects “stronger demand” in 2015, especially as fuel switching from natural gas to oil occurs.
Government Policies
A new policy issued late last month requires Chinese refiners to hold between 10 days of processing capacity when crude oil prices are above $130 per barrel and 15 days when they are lower. With more than 14 million barrels per day of refining capacity, Bloomberg estimates that threshold requires refineries to hold between 211 – 141 million barrels. But Suresh Sivanandam, an analyst at oil consultancy Wood Mackenzie, thinks this is unlikely to significantly impact storage levels. “We think they already meet this demand for 15 days,” said Sivanandam.
Analysts say China wants 90 days of crude oil coverage – the recommended amount by the IEA – but it’s unclear if that is just the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) or if includes private stockpiles as well. According to Sivanandam at Wood Mackenzie, 90 day holdings of imported oil use – China imports around 6 million barrels a day – equates to around 600 million barrels of oil storage capacity. By 2020, that number rises to 700 million barrels.
But SPR is only around 140 million barrels. “If you look at the plans, there’s a large gap,” said Sivanandam. It’s also what is driving the investment in private storage. Phase two of SPR should be finalized by 2020. In a research note,
Bernstein estimates that China can add another 100 million barrels to storage over the coming year.
If China is cagey about its SPR figures, getting a handle on commercial inventories is even more difficult. Wood Mackenzie estimates that CNPC has around 3.7 million barrels of storage. Listed CNPC subsidiary PetroChina didn’t respond to inquiries about their storage capacity. An industry publication put out by the state news agency Xinhua said the country had around 244.6 million barrels of commercial crude stockpiles at the end of 2014.
Complicating matters further is that significant storage volumes are not held by the state or state-owned companies, but instead in private hands. Tracking capacity in China is exceedingly difficult, according to analysts, but according to Sivanandam “our gut feel is [private actors] dominate the capacity in terms of the private storage space.”
 |
Major import country in the world will be China due to US produce
more crude oil from 2014 |
But storage held by non-state actors might have big impacts on the market. “Independent storage companies are boosting their tank capacity in the hope of making a profit by selling the oil when prices rise,” said industry expert Philip Andrews-Speed.
As more private companies get into the business of storing oil, hoarding is likely to become a problem. Earlier this month, the government’s top economic body sent investigators to Zhengzhou, in Henan province to investigate gasoline hoarding before an announced price hike (in China, retail prices are set by the government, meaning an announced increase in retail prices can lead to hoarding).
Still, with maturing fields and some domestic production likely to shut-in because of high costs, Chinese production growth is likely to slip by 1%, according to a note by Bernstein Research, meaning China will need to bump up imports.
 |
From China stock price peak point and oil price peak point, we suspect that oil price of world wide did not touch
its lower point of price due to China is on the over import of oil than before, not the real need of import |
分析
