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2016年4月8日 星期五

IMF特別提款權貨幣(SDR)將取代美元,成為主要的外匯存底貨幣: 將來全球儲備貨幣將改變 ( IMF SDR will make inference to USD position ? )

The IMF Confirms China Yuan Inclusion In SDR Basket At 10.92% Weight, Above JPY And GBP

IMF 將大幅降低 SDR 美元比重
The IMF reviews the composition of the basket every five years. The fund rejected the yuan for inclusion during the last review, in 2010, saying the currency didn’t meet the necessary criteria. But now...

  • IMF APPROVES ADDING YUAN TO RESERVE-CURRENCY BASKET
  • IMF SAYS YUAN TO JOIN SDR BASKET EFFECTIVE OCT. 1, 2016
  • IMF SAYS YUAN MEETS `FREELY USABLE' STANDARD
  • IMF STATEMENT DOESN'T SPECIFY WEIGHTING OF YUAN IN SDR BASKET
  • IMF SAYS CHINA IS EXPECTED TO HELP FACILITATE USE OF SDR
  • LAGARDE: ADDING YUAN RECOGNIZES CHINA'S PROGRESS ON REFORMS
  • LAGARDE SAYS CHINA TO IMPLEMENT MORE FINANCIAL REFORMS
  • IMF: YUAN TRADING UP SIGNIFICANTLY IN 2 OF 3 MAJOR TIME ZONES
      Reuters then reports,

CHINA'S RENMINBI TO HAVE WEIGHTING OF 10.92 PCT IN IMF'S BENCHMARK SDR CURRENCY BASKET
Which is less than the 14-16% expectation (but nationalistically greater than Japan's Yen and Britain's Pound)...

But, as Bloomberg details, there are 4 critical points...
  • SDR status doesn’t require central banks to hold yuan but could be a catalyst for portfolio reallocation.
  • Reserve managers for countries having strong trade and funding ties with China have the strongest incentive to increase yuan holdings.
  • Reallocations by central banks may be gradual to minimize disadvantageous market pricing.
  • Reallocations by private investors will be constrained until capital controls are lifted and transparency improves.

However, as Bloomberg concludes, the ability (and risks) are near-term constraints on any major re-allocations.

  The willingness to hold more yuan and less dollars is one thing; the ability to execute is quite another. At the moment, the ability of private foreign investors to increase their yuan allocation is limited by China’s capital controls. There are special arrangements for foreign central banks that give them enhanced access to China’s foreign exchange and interbank bond markets.

IMF 未公開文件是將人民幣增加15%,問題是中國外匯並不自由有管制,恐怕只是佔全世界便宜
  Another hurdle for expanding yuan holdings is the perception of a lack of transparency and market manipulation by the Chinese authorities. Until access and perceptions change, these factors will slow the flow into the yuan. The depth and security of U.S. government bonds may also constrain switches out of dollar assets.

Finally we could not help but see the irony in the fact that today The IMF accepts the Yuan into the 'free market' currency basket just a day after what appeared to be a huge intervention in the offshore Yuan market...
  Central banks tend to adjust reserve allocations slowly, so as not to pit market pricing against them. This suggests a steady gradual stream of demand for yuan assets over time. Until portfolio rebalancing is complete, dollar rallies may be short-lived as these may be seen as attractive opportunities for investors in both the public and private domain to trim dollar exposure.
As finally, before everyone gets too excited - The history of yen internationalization offers a cautionary tale on hopes for the yuan.

真相或陰謀論?美元體制將崩解、中俄囤金為危機作準備

中國、俄國央行狂買黃金,知名作者Jim Rickards提出陰謀論觀點解釋,預言以美元為主的全球貨幣體制瀕臨崩盤,國際貨幣秩序即將重組,中俄囤金,正是為了危機爆發預做準備。
MarketWatch、TruNews 報導,Rickards曾撰寫知名暢銷書《下一波全球貨幣大崩潰》(The Death of Money),他在新書《The New Case for Gold》預言,全球對美元失去信心,將導致貨幣秩序崩解,當前僅剩國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)擁有乾淨的資產負債表,IMF特別提款權貨幣(SDR)將取代美元,成為主要的外匯存底貨幣。各國擁金自重,是為了在重新制定規則時,取得更多發話權。

書中指出,各國增持黃金,分散外匯存底部位,形成影子金本位制。歐元區持有黃金佔GDP比重最高,超過4%。美國為2.7%、俄國也是2.7%。俄國正全力蒐購黃金,想超越美國、趕上歐元區。另外,2015年7月中國公布黃金持有量為1,658噸,外界多認為北京持有黃金可能接近4,000噸,並持續增加當中。

Rickards 認為,等到貨幣秩序瓦解,國際改寫規則時,黃金就像賭桌上的籌碼一般,哪國持有越多、份量越重,將成為新貨幣秩序的主導者。他預估,新秩序將由美國、德國、俄國、中國制定。中國兩國囤金,正是為此預作準備。

英國金融時報、路透社3月31日報導,全球地緣政治風險日益緊繃、再加上外匯存底分散需求日增,促使全球央行趁著低價在去(2015)年大舉購入黃金,收購量多達483公噸、創金本位制結束以來的次高紀錄。根據湯森路透黃金礦業服務公司(Thomson Reuters GFMS)統計,俄羅斯與西方國家的關係日益緊張,為了把外匯存底從美元分散出去,該國已連續第4年成為全球最大黃金買家,去年收購量增加了206公噸。

中國去年下半年也大買104公噸的黃金,使黃金儲備量上升至1,742公噸,與俄羅斯成為去年最主要的黃金買主。


分析
  • 貨幣、黃金ETF及全球貿易看,仍然要經歷3年以上時間,美元才會完全結束高檔;
  • GLD ETF 趨勢看,黃金上升及美元高檔是再來情況,IMF 將人民幣增加比重,問題是中國外匯並不自由有管制,很難有實際作用;
  • IMF特別提款權貨幣(SDR)將取代美元,成為主要的外匯存底貨幣: 將來全球儲備貨幣將改變,但以全球貿易實力及中國外匯並不自由,5年內全球仍難以改變美元是主要全球貿易貨幣,加上中國加入IMF,中國大陸卻不守住人民幣,也就是說中國大陸比想像中脆弱許多人民幣下跌是全球最大風險,後來又靠中國外匯加強管制才又守住人民幣,IMF這些動作義意不大,歐元區也無法靠 Euro 特別提款權貨幣(SDR)之比重升高來維繫歐元,因為歐元問題是天生的
  • 人類資本主義金融之貨幣系統已經演變成支撐全球經濟成長關鍵,然而 , 全球債務已經超過50兆美元 之今日,既使印鈔來轉移債務泡沫,貨幣之信心需要靠黃金來支撐已經是再次印鈔需要之要件,這改革需要 IMF 一籃子貨幣加上黃金來支撐貨幣信心,但這改革還是要外匯自由貨幣來支撐,不可能靠有管制之人民幣及不穩定歐元;

2016年3月26日 星期六

聖嬰現象對糖產的負面影響於今年逐步發酵,需尋找糖價受益相關投資 ( The negative impact of El Nino on the fermentation of sugar this year, and gradually boost the sugar price )

基本面出現改善 糖價可望獲得推升動力

《Agrimoney.com》3月14日報導,荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)最新報告表示,糖市的基本面正在出現改善,並且也開始推動糖價的上漲,該行將2015/16年全球糖市短缺預估從470萬噸上調至680萬噸。報告表示,今年初以來糖價主要受到基金賣盤、總體經濟的不確定性,以及低油價等因素的影響,直到現在基本面的因素才正開始影響糖價。美國洲際期貨交易所(ICE Futures U.S.)5月粗糖期貨3月14日收盤為每磅15.42美分,創下年內新高。

德國軟性商品分析公司F.O. Licht週一(14日)也在報告中將糖市短缺預估從650萬噸上調至720萬噸。國際糖業組織( International Sugar Organisation )上月則是在報告中將將糖市短缺預估從150萬噸上調至500萬噸,巴西分析機構Datagro也將糖市短缺預估從387萬噸上調至437萬噸,福四通(FC Stone)將糖市短缺預估從560萬噸上調至700萬噸。

荷蘭合作銀行報告稱,未來糖價的主要影響因素在于最大產國巴西的產量,目前市場上預期2016/17年度巴西糖產量將為3,400-3,500萬噸,但該行認為巴西糖產量低於預期的機率要比高於預期的機率來得大,主要因為巴西可能有更多甘蔗將用於生產乙醇,並且天氣也可能是不利因素之一。此外,巴西幣近期的升值對於該國的糖出口也較為不利。

巴西甘蔗產業聯盟(Unica)技術總監羅德里格茲(Antonio de Padua Rodrigues)表示,自4月起的2016/17年度,主產的中南部地區糖產量預估將年增約200萬噸至3,300萬噸,此項預估低於其他分析機構的預期。

澳大利亞農業資源經濟及科技局(Abares)預估,未來五年全球糖市將是供給短缺的局面,有助於消化糖市的庫存;至2020/21年度,全球糖市的庫存消費比將從上年度的43%降至28%。2016/17年度,全球糖產量預估將為1.83億噸,產量增長主要來自於歐盟、中國大陸、巴西以及印度等國家。至2020/21年度,全球糖消費量預估較目前增加300萬噸至1.87億噸,其中95%的消費增長是來自於大陸、印度以及巴西等三個國家。


陸媒報導,2016年中國糖業發展國際論壇暨中國糖業協會商業流通會員座談會,將於3月11日於廣西舉行,屆時主產糖省區將通報2015/2016年製糖期食糖產銷情況、2016/2017年製糖期糖料種植情況。另受聖嬰現象影響,全球食糖產量明顯下滑,國際主要糖業機構普遍預計,全球糖市六年來首次出現供應缺口,缺口規模將超市場預期。機構預計,白糖已經進入減產週期,需求保持穩定增長致使庫存去化加速,糖價有望繼續上漲,製糖業景氣可望持續。

據悉,2015/2016年榨季,大陸糖產量再降10%以上,而需求穩定增長,供給和需求顯著改善將推動糖價上漲。2015/2016年製糖期已進入生產旺季,截至今年1月底,本製糖期全國累計產糖421.09萬噸,上製糖期同期產糖為478.57萬噸,比上製糖期同期少產糖57.48萬噸,減產幅度達12%。


與此同時,大陸食糖需求處於穩定增長,根據近日大陸國家統計局資料顯示,去(2015)年食品和飲料製造業年增均逾7.5%,而食品及飲料製造業在大陸食糖消費的比例中佔據主要規模。另外,據外媒報導,緬甸白糖與甘蔗產品商協會消息,今財年中國白糖需求量高漲,進行了大量購買,因而緬甸本財年(2015年至2016財年)白糖出口量預計將創30年來新高,有望超過300萬噸。

大陸糖業已進入新一輪減產週期,未來不斷改善的供需關係將推升製糖業景氣。自2011/2012年榨季以來,廣西甘蔗收購價逐年下調,自500元/噸(人民幣,下同)降至去年的400元/噸,目前略有回升。但受兌付率偏低、改種其他農作物等因素影響,農民種植甘蔗的意願已大幅降低,預計2016/2017年度種植面積難以出現明顯回升。

此外,受聖嬰現象影響,食糖主產國的產量明顯下降。國際主要糖業機構普遍預計,2015/2016年度,全球糖市六年來首次出現供應缺口,且缺口規模將超預期。其中,巴西中南部主產區2015/2016年榨季減產格局已定,聖嬰現象對印度、泰國食糖生產也造成不利影響。多家機構預測2015/2016年度全球食糖供應出現缺口,且近日多家機構預計供需缺口將擴大。巴西行業分析機構 Datagro 近期表示,預計2015/2016年度全球糖市供應短缺437萬噸,1月預估為387萬噸,2016/2017年度預計短缺769萬噸。

There's a worldwide sugar shortage happening right now

If you’re a fan of sugar - and let’s face it, you probably are - 2016 is going to be an expensive year, because recent El Niño events have brought on a worldwide sugar shortage that's becoming a whole lot bigger than analysts initially thought.

According to a report by The Independent, raw sugar prices are up 45 percent since last August, and researchers say it's because El Niño has dealt a one-two punch to the areas of the world where most sugar is produced. For India, Thailand, and China, droughts have devastated this year's production, and will likely affect next year’s yield as well.

The world’s second largest sugar-producing region, India, has experienced decreased rainfall that has limited the number of crops farmers were able to plant. To make matters worse, the areas that have received rain, such as Brazil, got too much to properly harvest cane.

All of this means that there isn’t enough sugar to fulfil the 4.95 million tonnes the world is expected to consume this year. Demand for the natural sweetener is expected to exceed new supply by 7.6 million metric tonnes this season - a 2.5 million-tonne increase over its previous estimates, The Wall Street Journal reports.

On the plus side, this year’s shortage comes at a time when sugar was at its lowest price in many years thanks to a surplus of production. "After five years of surplus that sent prices to the lowest since 2008, supply is expected to fall short of demand in the 2015-16 season," Rudy Ruitenberg reports for Bloomberg.

"The fact is that we’ve had four to five years of too much sugar - four or five years of feast, and we’re now looking for the first time at a sizeable deficit," Tim Worledge from Platts Agriculture, an independent commodities analysis organisation, told The Wall Street Journal.

Economic repercussions aside, what actually happened to cause this shortage? To answer that, we need to talk about El Niño, which, in its most basic summary, is simply a climate cycle.

As the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) puts it: "The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific."

When in full swing, El Niño affects weather all over the place. For some areas, this means more rain, and for others, that means less. This year and last, the cycle has affected sugar producing regions of the world harder. There’s not really any specific reason for this - it’s just really bad luck.

So, for the foreseeable future, get ready to spend more on sugar at the store and hope that the weather favours the regions responsible for its production next year.

分析

  • 目前為2012年產季有完整紀錄以來的同期產量最低點,同時印度全國約500家糖廠,去年同期尚有473家運作中,今年僅325家,其中今年已停止生產的189家糖廠中。
  • Green Pool Commodities increased its forecast for the global sugar deficit, saying consumption will exceed supply by 6.65 million tons, up from an earlier forecast of 4.14 million tons for the crop year that ends in March.. ( 預估糖供應小於需求 ).
  • 糖價在今年初隨整體原物料商品價格一同走弱,但從上週起已完全收復今年跌幅,目前仍持續走多• 上週已提到巴西里爾匯率走升為軟性商品價格提供支撐,但目前已升至相對高點,且由於巴西政局動盪將進入相對較大波動•除匯率之外,從去年起的聖嬰現象對糖產的負面影響於今年逐步發酵,導致糖的供應基本面短缺趨勢明顯,預期今年糖價將持續在供應不足消息下走升

2016年2月10日 星期三

2016 避險基金及避險放空 ETF之機會及全球金融之變局 - 人民幣、石油、原物料、美元 ( 2016 hedge funds and ETF growth with opportunities to the global financial changing situation )

    避險基金的英文名稱為Hedge Fund ( 意為「風險對沖的基金」) 又稱對沖基金,起源於50年代初的美國。當時的操作宗旨在於利用期貨、期權等金融衍生產品以及對相關聯的不同股票進行買空賣空、風險對沖的操作技巧,在一定程度上可規避和化解投資風險。1949年世界上誕生了第一個有限合作制的瓊斯避險基金。雖然避險基金在20世紀50年代已經出現,但是,它在接下來的三十年間並未引起人們的太多關注,直到20世紀80年代,隨著金融自由化的發展,避險基金才有了更廣闊的投資機會,從此進入了快速發展的階段。20世紀90年代,世界通貨膨脹的威脅逐漸減少,同時金融工具日趨成熟和多樣化,避險基金進入了蓬勃發展的階段。據英國《經濟學人》的統計,從1990年到2000年,3000多個新的避險基金在美國和英國出現。2002年後,避險基金的收益率有所下降,但避險基金的規模依然不小,據英國《金融時報》報導,截至2005年10月22日,全球避險基金總資產額已經達到1.1兆美元。2014年5月,避險基金業管理的資產總規模歷史上首次超過3萬億美元。

    風險對沖其實就是多空配置達到基金操作較穩定收益的方式,是需要精通選擇權、期指、國際匯率、原物料供需、能源供需、天氣、戰爭、政經事件、股票、利率、景氣指標對金融商品之間影響,做出經統計模式之較穩定收益的多空配置。

避險基金管理者發現金融衍生工具的上述特點後,他們所掌握的避險基金便開始改變了投資策略,他們把套期交易的投資策略變為通過「大量交易」操縱相關的幾個金融市場,從它們的價格變動中獲利。

現時,避險基金常用的投資策略多達20多種。其手法主要可以分為以下9種:
  1. 長短倉,即同時買入及沽空股票,可以是淨長倉或淨短倉;
  2. 運用國際匯率長短倉,同時運用股票趨勢及壓力區,結合選擇權進行套利;
  3. 市場中性,即同時買入股價偏低及沽出股價偏高的股票;
  4. 相對價值策略:如可換股公司債套利,即買入價格偏低的可換股債券,同時沽空正股,反之亦然;或如市場中立策略
  5. 全球宏觀,即由上至下分析各地經濟金融體系,按政經事件及主要趨勢買賣;
  6. 管理期貨,即持有各種衍生工具長短倉。
  7. 利用經濟大國政策:國際匯率、原物料供需、能源供需、利率、景氣指標之多空長短倉:
    • 如利用中國去產能過剩之政策造成之PMI下滑,來空人民幣及原物料、能源、股票,再運用指數 ETF 支撐持短多。
    • 利用美國聯儲升息造成之資金流動趨勢,來空亞幣、能源。
  8. 利用選擇權在漲跌區間及長時間振盪區間後必表態之金融市場特性,建立買入多空部位,等待表態後賺取槓桿倍數超越時間價值成本損失之獲利。
  9. 運用併購、增資趨勢,將未來新增與現在股票價差進行套利配息。
由於,自2013 以來全球避險基金及ETF 投資之資金持續成長,演變成全球重要投資趨勢,更影響全球股、債變化。

全球投入ETF及避險基金都達到3兆美元ETFs One-Up Hedge Funds As Investor Assets Hit $3 Trillion )

xchange traded funds have achieved the most phenomenal milestone since they debuted on the stock market in 1993. The total amount of money invested in ETFs globally have hit a whopping $3 trillion, according to Markit.  ETFs have one-upped the more mature, 66-year-old hedge fund industry with $2.939 trillion in investor assets, according to London-based ETFGI.

“2015 ETF inflows are on track to match last year’s $300 billion record,” Markit wrote in a report Thursday night. “The two funds leading inflows this year have seen assets grow over 600 fold since 2012. Funds listed outside of North America have seen over $100 billion of inflows in the last 29 months.”

ETFs are skyrocketing in popularity as investor appetite for hedge funds wane.  California Public Employees’ Retirement System — the largest U.S. pension plan — dumped its hedge funds last year because of sky-high fees and complexity. Hedge funds typically charge a 2% annual management fee and 20% of profits compared with 0.31% on average for ETFs.

Hedge Fund Under-performance

Investors prefer ETFs because they are very liquid, fully transparent, cover numerous asset classes and are cheaper  than most other investment products, including futures, said Deborah Fuhr, managing partner at ETFGI. Hedge funds have underperformed the S&P 500 index each of the past four years, lack liquidity and lack transparency, said Fuhr.

The HFRX Equity Hedge Index, tracking the average hedge fund, returned 3.4% year to date, through May 6, according to Hedge Fund Research. It gained only 1.4% in 2014, 11.1% in 2013 and 4.8% in 2012. By contrast, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) returned 2% year to date. It added 13.5% in 2014, a phenomenal 32.3% in 2013 and 16.0% in 2012.



U.S. ETF Asset Flows

Total assets in U.S. ETFs and ETPs reached a new record of $2.132 trillion at April’s end, ETFGI announced Friday. ETFs had net inflows of $14.6 billion in April. Year to date through the end of April 2015, ETFs had a record level of net inflows of $72.1 billion — more than double the prior record of $34.9 billion in the year-ago period. Equity ETFs attracted the largest net inflows year to date with $41.3 billion, followed by fixed-income ETFs with $21.8 billion, and commodity ETFs with $3.2 billion in net inflows, ETFGI reported.

iShares, the largest U.S. ETF provider, saw the greatest net inflows in April at $7.7 billion. Vanguard followed with $7.2 billion in net inflows, Deutsche $4.7 billion, WisdomTree $4.0 billion and First Trust $1.9 billion.

Ky Trang Ho is the founder of Key Financial Media LLC, which produces content and thought leadership for financial advisors and investment strategists.


2015 避險基金之績效( Harvard club members delivering positive hedge funds performance in 2015 )

Highfields Capital Management, the $12 billion fund that has been closed to new investors in 2015, reported 3.3 percent performance in February after a negative January, according to a report in Bloomberg Briefs.

The much-watch Harvard University Management Company alumni Jonathon Jacobson co-founded the hedge fund in 1998 with a reported $1.5 billion initial investment from the Ivy League school.  The value investors posted low single digit returns last year, as value metrics didn’t discover much in the way of value.  The fund has profited in every year since its founding, with the exception of two years.

Another Harvard club member with positive 2015 performance is high yield bond hedge fund Regiment Capital Advisors, which Bloomberg reported was up 2.1 percent in February, coming off a 0.5 percent loss in January. The fund lost 8.8 percent in 2014, hurt by exposure in oil and various transportation-related debt offerings.


對沖基金的規模、排名與績效 ( 引用齊老師文章 )

2006年底對沖基金規模1.3兆美元,1.2萬多檔。最好與最壞的前三名對沖基金如下:( 註:2015年底對沖基金已達3.0兆美元,好壞排名不知 )

最好的前三名

  1. Atticus Capital:120億資產,以紐約為總部,近日以合併題材大力支援Phelps Dodge(世界第一大銅礦公司)聞名。擁有10%的Phelps Dodge股票,11/20日Phelps Dodge因合併案上漲27%,同時間Atticus European fund在12月上漲35%,Atticus Global fund上漲30%。 
  2. Greenlight Capital:40億資產,經營者David Einhorn是第一位與巴菲特競標吃午餐的人。至11底2006年獲利超過20%,10年前開始運用,每年的平均報酬為24%。 
  3. Citadel Investment Group:130億資產,以芝加哥為總部。千日紅基金Amaranth結束,就是由這個基金接手。自1998年開始,每年的平均報酬超過20%。

最壞的前三名:

  1. Amaranth Advisors:年初資產90億,因操作天然氣能源相關投資,九月份單月虧損60億。基金結束。 
  2. Vega Asset Management:數年前操作績效好而快數成長,而達到120億資產。連續三年操作績效不佳,至11底2006年虧損超過15%,造成投資人贖回超過60億資產。
  3. Ritchie Capital Management:足球明星Thane Ritchie成立於1998年。,至11底2006年虧損超過1.51%,2005年虧損2.5%。

  【2006/05/29】根據對沖基金業內雜誌─Alpha指出,排名前26名年薪最高的對沖基金經理人,全年收入平均數為3.63億美元,年薪逾10億美元的更大有人在,現職文藝復興科技公司(Renaissance Technologies)對沖基金經理西蒙斯(James Simons),去年全年荷包進帳15億美元,高居同業之冠。這26位頂尖的對沖基金經理人,年薪之高遠遠超過華爾街投資銀行家;華爾街證券商收入最高的行政總裁是高盛的保爾森(Henry Paulson),根據富比士(Forbes)報導,去年也只賺取3,830萬美元。對沖基金經理人可以賺大錢,投資人也是眉開眼笑,根據行規,一般對沖基金管理費約5%,基金經理人還可以依績效表現抽取績效費。以西蒙斯為例,他管理的王牌基金Medallion Fund,資產總值已來到53億美元,扣除5%管理費、44%績效費後,這檔基金還有高達29.5%的報酬率。西蒙斯藝高人膽大,績效才會如此卓著。


  依對沖基金研究公司Eu-rekahedge的統計,從2000年到今年4月底,北美對沖基金指數漲了108.3%,亞洲對沖基金指數緊追其後,也漲了105.49%,歐洲對沖基金指數近七年來亦揚升93.17%,日本有關指數表現較差,但也上漲了87.4%。

私募對沖基金在台已開放,但不考慮開放公募型的對沖基金。公募對沖基金無法登台,但港、星的對沖基金業者卻深知:台灣有錢人是對沖基金的最大買家。台灣人有不少資金滯留海外,對沖基金是他們近來最時髦的投資工具。

2015 ~ 2016 全球金融之最大變局

三大債市開年來三度失血,市場避險情緒高漲 ( 引用摩根資管 )
 
美國升息變數衝擊債券買氣,搭配國際油價走勢持續疲弱,投資人恐慌情緒再升級,上周三大債市再度呈現全面失血, 其中,高收益債受累於國際能源價格直直落而賣壓最沉重,上周淨流出20.43億美元;投資級企業債和美債也再分別淨流出4.34億美元和4.12億美元,資金連續淨流出周數來到第九周,惟資金調節幅度已見縮小。值得一提的是,轉出債市的觀望資金並沒轉進貨幣型市場停泊,上周貨幣市場基金再度失血75.03億美元。


摩根策略總報酬基金經理人艾略特(James Elliot)指出,2016年以來金融市場反覆震盪,向來被視為市場恐慌情緒風向球的VIX指數維持高檔水位,儘管市場投資氣氛偏向觀望,但眼見美國本周即將召開FOMC利率會議,市場擔憂美國聯準會升息恐衝擊債市,上周再度遭到國際資金調節,而這也是今年債市第三度全面失血。

即便市場避險情緒高漲,但艾略特(James Elliot)進一步指出,不僅債市未因此漁翁得利,就連觀望資金於風險意識高漲之際,常選擇短暫停泊的貨幣市場也出現失血,顯示市場恐慌情緒已來到高點,因此市場資金選擇完全退場,等待投資氣氛改善再行進場的趨勢鮮明。