Ten Predictions for M2M in 2013
每年的 Machinery Research 使得其在世界的機器對機器和物聯網來年的預測。這是我們的預測，在2013年的大發展。 Every year Machinery Research makes its predictions about what the coming year holds in the world of machine-to-machine and the internet of things. Here are our predictions for the big developments in 2013.
1. 運營商聯盟將擴大他們的角色變得更清晰。為了支持全球的M2M產品，移動網絡運營商正越來越多地形成聯盟。目前最突出的是沃達丰與它的合作夥伴的市場，並在2012年出現的兩個分組：：全球M2M協會（德國電信（Deutsche Telekom），Orange和Telia公司Sonera公司）和分組周圍的的曾鈺成無線平台（包括NTT DOCOMO和Telefonica），“J-7“。在2013年，我們期待了很多的運營商將加入這些新興的聯盟，這些組織的角色將變得更加明顯了很多，例如聯合投標，IMSI交換（見下文）和服務等級協議（SLA）。 Operator alliances will expand and their roles become clearer. To support global M2M offerings MNOs are increasingly forming into alliances. The most prominent currently are Vodafone with its Partner markets, and two groupings that emerged during 2012: the Global M2M Association (
Deutsche Telekom, Orange and
Telia Sonera) and the grouping around the
Jasper Wireless platform (including
NTT DOCOMO and Telefonica), the “J-7”. During 2013 we expect a lot more operators will join these emerging alliances and that the roles of these organisations will become a lot more apparent, e.g. with joint bidding,
IMSI-swapping (see below), and SLAs.
2. 運營商聯盟將擴大他們的角色變得更清晰。為了支持全球的 M2M 產品，移動網絡運營商正越來越多地形成聯盟。目前最突出的是 Vodafone 與它的合作夥伴的市場，並在2012年出現的兩個分組：：全球M2M協會（德國電信（Deutsche Telekom），Orange 和 Telia 公司Sonera公司）和分組周圍的無線平台（包括 NTT DOCOMO 和 Telefonica），“J-7“。在2013年，我們期待了很多的運營商將加入這些新興的聯盟，這些組織的角色將變得更加明顯了很多，例如聯合投標，IMSI 交換（見下文）和服務等級協議（SLA）。Data analytic seizes the M2M agenda. Relevant to M2M and also to the wider telecoms market is data analytic or so-called “big data”. During 2012 there were a few tentative moves in this direction such as Telefonica’s Dynamic Insights business unit, but 2013 will see many of the issues crystallize. Machinery Research believes that a huge amount of the value of the M2M market lies in the analysis and manipulation of the data generated by diverse sources.
3. 標準......誰在乎呢？在 2012 年，有很多開放的標準所採取的措施。 M2M 是一個支離破碎的領域，有許多不同的技術，針對特定行業的標準和各種各樣的利益相關者。因此，它很可能在2013年將實現標準化，而不是溫和的目標制定一個全方位的 M2M 標準。許多公司不會等待標準。Standards…who cares? In 2012 there were a lot of initiatives around open standards. M2M is a fragmented field with numerous different technologies, industry-specific standards and a diverse range of stakeholders. As such, it is likely that standardization in 2013 will achieve modest objectives rather than developing an all-encompassing set of M2M standards. Many companies won’t wait for standards.
4. 可編程SIM卡/ eUICC的開始起飛，多家運營商不會等待標準是重要的，應在2013年完成標準化的一個領域是eUICC。有很多在遠程SIM卡管理M2M的興趣，我們希望在2013年的預標準化的商業部署。有幾個問題需要解決，看規模的運營商間的的IMSI交換，並非最不重要的訂閱管理器的作用。在2013年的過程中，自然也有很多討論，圍繞如何概念的重新可編程的SIM卡可能影響更廣泛的行業（即手機和移動寬帶）。Programmable
SIMs/eUICC will start to take off and several operators won’t wait for standardization One area where standards are important and should be finalized in 2013 is eUICC. There is a lot of interest in remote SIM management for M2M and we expect pre-standardization commercial deployments in 2013. Several issues need to be resolved to see full-scale inter-operator IMSI swapping, not least the Subscription Manager role. During the course of 2013 there will naturally also be a lot of discussion around how the concept of re-programmable SIMs might affect the wider industry (i.e. handsets and mobile broadband).
5. 模塊將成為更適合的目的。機械研究認為，蜂窩 M2M 模塊的價值鏈不為M2M提供設備進行優化。有效的行業過度設計的產品，適用於智能手機或高規格的M2M設備。在2013年，我們期待看到一個更適合為目的的M2M設備，驅動因素有兩個：更大容量的設備和流動網絡營辦商包銷的終端銷量。這將有助於降低部署的成本，蜂窩M2M。我們也將看到M2M設備越來越多的嵌合直接與面向M2M-芯片集，而不是使用一個專用的模塊。 Modules will become more fit-for-purpose. Machine Research believes that the cellular M2M module value chain is not delivering devices optimized for M2M. Effectively the industry is getting over-engineered products appropriate for smartphones or high-spec M2M devices. During 2013 we expect to see a lot more fit-for-purpose M2M devices, driven by two factors: greater volumes of devices and an underwriting of device volumes by MNOs. This will help to drive down the costs of deploying cellular M2M. We will also see an increasing number of M2M devices fitted directly with M2M-oriented chip-sets, rather than using a dedicated module.
6. 模塊供應商，更多的競爭壓力下，開始與移動網絡運營商競爭。 M2M 模塊市場的競爭日趨激烈，推動模塊 OEM 廠商能夠找到新的方法來區分和競爭不是簡單的成本。在過去的一年或兩年，我們已經看到所有模塊的主要供應商（Cinterion 公司/金雅拓公司，Sierra Wireless 和泰利特（Telit））推出的基於雲的設備管理平台，與M2M服務的潛在用戶提供終端到終端的服務。他們是在一個很好的位置，提供簡單的一個一站式的設備和連接，尤其是對於規模較小的合約。然而，這是很危險的供應商逾越的商標，並開始與他們的MNO客戶直接競爭。 Module vendors, under more competitive pressure, start to compete with MNOs. The M2M module market is becoming more competitive, pushing module
OEMs to find new ways to differentiate and compete other than simply cost. During the last year or two we have seen all of the major module vendors (Cinterion/Gemalto,
Sierra Wireless and
Telit) launch cloud-based device management platforms, with a view to providing end-to-end services for potential users of M2M services. They are in a very good position to provide simple one-stop-shop for devices and connectivity, particularly for smaller contracts. However, it is dangerous for vendors to overstep the mark and start competing directly with their
MNO customers.
7. M＆A的M2M。過去幾年中已經看到了亂舞的M＆A活動在軟件和硬件部門，其中包括大量模塊中的部門合併。沒有發生嚴重的M＆A的服務空間。例如，從2012年的一個獨立USD612萬美元收購休斯通信公司 Verizon 的。已經有一些有趣收購移動網絡運營商的利基具有特殊專長的公司，如AT＆T購買的 Xanboo 和沃達丰（Vodafone）完成收購 Zellitron。收購是個例外，而不是在服務行業的M2M規範：在這些艱難的時期，重點似乎已經更多的夥伴關係。機器Research預計，在2013年有更多的收購。More M&A in M2M. The last couple of years have seen a flurry of M&A activity in both software and hardware sectors, including a substantial consolidation in the module sector. What has not happened to date is a serious set of M&A in the services space. The one stand-out example from 2012 was the acquisition by Verizon of Hughes Telematics for USD612 million. There have been a number of interesting acquisitions by MNOs of niche companies with particular expertise, such as AT&T’s purchase of Xanboo and Vodafone completing the acquisition of Zellitron. Acquisitions have been the exception rather than the norm in the services sector of M2M: in these straitened times, the focus seems to have been more on partnerships. Machine Research expects many more acquisitions in 2013.
8. 更多樣化的RAN技術。在接下來的12個月內，我們希望看到更多的碎片在M2M無線接入市場。 2G的統治地位將被打破。在2012年，我們看到了開始2G結束。雙雙打破了AT＆T和Verizon無線覆蓋，並宣布今年分別停止（2017）的GSM和CDMA（2021）營運。他們的理由是：其他技術提供了一個顯著降低成本每位比2G。最終，所有的移動網絡運營商將目光re-farm 的2G頻譜。我們預計在2013年公佈。也許不是完整的2G切換，但肯定繼續大幅re-farming。此外，其他新技術也開始與2G競爭，例如使用白色空間譜。 More diversity in RAN technology. During the next 12 months we expect to see more fragmentation of the radio access market in M2M. The dominance of 2G will be broken. During 2012 we saw the beginning of the end for 2G. AT&T and Verizon Wireless both broke cover this year and announced the switch-off of GSM (2017) and CDMA (2021), respectively. The reasoning is clear: other technologies offer a significantly lower cost-per-bit than 2G. Ultimately, all MNOs will look to refarm their 2G spectrum. We expect more announcements in 2013. Perhaps not in terms of complete 2G switch-off, but certainly continuing substantial refarming. Also, other new technologies are also starting to compete with 2G, for example using white space spectrum.
9. 更多的精力關注盈利能力（垂直）。在2012年有一個顯著的斜坡通過移動網絡運營商的M2M業務。在某些情況下，有一個方法“贏得了這筆交易，掛的費用。在尋找擴大規模，一些移動網絡運營商接受新業務利潤率低，或根本不存在，。 M2M成功的關鍵是效率和移動網絡運營商將轉向他們的方法中隱含的勝利不惜一切成本模型驅動，效率低下。在2013年移動網絡運營商將採用比較成熟的方法，重點對獲獎企業是有利可圖的，並確保解決方案正常工作，並且是有利可圖的。我們也將看到移動網絡運營商更多的注意力放在垂直行業，與更多的行業特定的解決方案。 More focus on delivery and profitability (and verticals). During 2012 there was a significant ramp-up in M2M business done by mobile network operators. In some cases there was an approach of ‘win the deal and hang the expense’. In looking to gain scale some MNOs accepted low, or non-existent, margins on new business. The key to M2M success is efficiency and MNOs will shift their approach to drive out that inefficiency implicit in the win-at-all-costs model. During 2013 MNOs will adopt a more mature approach, focusing on winning business that is profitable and ensuring that solutions work properly and are profitable. We will also see MNOs focus more attention on vertical sectors, with more sector-specific solutions.
10. 用法為基礎的保險將起飛，特別是在歐洲。用法為基礎的保險市場，就又美滋滋的欺騙。這是常年的“下一件大事”的M2M。機研究的觀點是，所有被設置為這個行業在2013年出現大幅增長。特別是，在歐盟的增長將刺激歐洲法院的裁決，保險公司將不再設置保費時，能夠充分考慮申請人的性別。許多移動網絡運營商的重點是在這方面特別注意。例如，西班牙電信宣布了一項協議，忠利保險公司在2012年11月開發解決方案。這不僅是在歐洲的勢頭越來越大。在美國好事達和利寶互助UBI的產品，而福特和國營農場最近擴大了他們的安全駕駛優惠UBI模型的基礎上從福特SYNC連接。 Usage-based insurance will take off, particularly in Europe. Usage based insurance is a market that has flattered to deceive. It is the perennial ‘next big thing’ of M2M. Machine Research’s view is that all is set for a substantial growth in this sector in 2013. In particular, growth in the EU will be stimulated by the
European Court of Justice ruling that insurers will no longer be able to take the sex of the applicant into account when setting premiums. Many MNOs are focusing specific attention on this area. Telefonica, for instance, announced an agreement with Generali Seguros in November 2012 to develop a solution . It is not just in Europe that momentum is growing. In the US
Allstate and Liberty Mutual now have UBI products, while Ford and State Farm have recently expanded their Drive Safe & Save UBI model based on connectivity from
Ford SYNC.
